Reggie Bush vs. Jahvid Best: A Statistical Breakdown

When people talk (or argue) about running backs, there’s really only one stat you hear: yards per carry. It’s an okay stat and it’s easy enough to calculate. But it doesn’t tell you anything about how the guy got to that number. Adrian Peterson has the same career YPC as Barry Sanders. Reggie Bush has a higher career YPC than Emmitt Smith. But all of these guys are vastly different. You hear the argument all the time that Emmitt Smith was more consistent, while Barry was kind of an all-or-nothing home run hitter. But average yards per carry doesn’t tell you anything about that. And maybe you value those aspects of a guy differently. Maybe you’d rather have the consistency of a guy that will keep churning out first downs. Maybe you would prefer the guy that can change a game and get you on the scoreboard in an instant. So I had the idea to make a histogram out of the distances of each run from a guy’s career. Considering I couldn’t find a database with such information and it takes a while to sift through box scores, I chose to stay away from the combined 7471 carries between Barry and Emmitt and instead look at a more topical comparison: Jahvid Best vs. Reggie Bush.

As you may know, the Lions just recently signed Reggie Bush to fill the gaping hole in their offense vacated by Jahvid Best. While a large part of this deal hinges on the pass-catching ability of both guys, the Lions could also use a big boost in their running game. Last year, the Lions had just 4 runs of 20 or more yards, tied for worst in the NFL, and less than an 8th of the total of 33 by the league leading Minnesota Vikings. The Lions could use some juice. They could use some Jahvid Best juice. So does Reggie Bush have it? Let’s go to the data.

I’ve collected the distance of every run from both Jahvid Best and Reggie Bush’s careers to this point and organized them by distance (for example, Best has had 27 runs of 0 yards in his career). I then divided these totals by the total number of carries to get a frequency (Best has a run of 0 yards on 11.2% of his carries). That way, I can compare apples to apples despite Reggie having way more carries in his career than Best. So here’s what I came up with…

bush_best

We see a few interesting things here. The first is that Best has wayyy more carries of -3 to +2 yards than Reggie does. Reggie seems to fill out his distribution a little more symmetrically by dominating the +3 and +4 range. And while Bush has more -9 to -4 yard runs (2 runs of -9 yards in a career? yikes), he makes up for it by outshining Best in the 7 to 13 range. Above that, the data is pretty sporadic, but they both seem to have a similar number of explosive runs. I think it’s fair to call Reggie Bush a far better runner at this point.

By combing through the box scores, I’m also intrigued by Reggie Bush’s usage throughout his career. In his first 3 years with the Saints, Reggie Bush was used in tandem with Deuce McAllister with a little bit of Aaron Stecker and Pierre Thomas sprinkled in. Over that time span, he averaged 11.0 rushing attempt per game and 5.6 receptions per game. In 2009 and 2010, Reggie took a back seat to Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory. His stats dropped to 4.8 rushes per game and 3.7 catches per game. Since moving on to Miami, he’s taken on a more traditional running back role, with 14.3 rushing attempts per game and 2.5 receptions per game.

Since his signing, there have been reports that the Lions offered Reggie the role of being a feature back and, of course, he was also brought in to fill Jahvid Best’s role. Considering that, I don’t think it would be out of the question for Bush to see something close to the 14.0 carries per game and 4.5 receptions per game that Best saw in 2011. Hopefully, that would combine his most successful rushing years from Miami (14.3 rushes per game at 4.7 YPC) with his most successful receiving years from New Orleans (5.6 receptions per game at 7.5 yards per catch).

Before this trade, I was all-in on the Reggie Bush bandwagon. After looking at the data, I think it’s safe to say I’m driving the bandwagon. A rich man’s Jahvid Best in an offense that never sees 8 man boxes is a recipe for plenty of offense.

Off Season, Off Topic: Gif Tournament III – Part 2: How the West Was Won

Welcome to the longest, greatest multi-part title I’ve ever made. In my last post, I introduced you to the GIF Tournament III. Hopefully, if you’re reading this, the first post got you intrigued enough to head over to sbnation and take a look at some of the contenders competing for the title. Today, I’ll take an in-depth look at the West Region, home to some real contenders, but also a few duds. Let’s start with the first round.

Round 1

(1) Tommy Hunter vs (16) Carlos Gomez

The Matchup: This is a classic 1 vs 16 mismatch. However, that speaks more to the weakness of Carlos Gomez than to the strength of Tommy Hunter, who I believe to be a bit overseeded. First of all, let’s look at Tommy Hunter. The idea is solid, and the execution very good, but this one is made by the camera man. We see the outfielder tracking back and then all of a sudden, the reveal. Totally springs it on you. Good, quality GIF, but there are a few things that hold it back from truly being a 1 seed. First of all, it’s not a hilarious type of funny, which is alright except that it’s such an attention-seeking sort of move that it’s lack of hilarity doesn’t make it subtle humor, it just cheapens it a little. He plans this out knowing exactly what’s going to happen and he gets the result he wants. Still, kudos for not flinching. Thirdly, with so many extra characters appearing in the GIF, they really don’t add anything extra to the shot. If you want an example of what I’m looking for, here’s one of my favorite GIFs of all time, Yankee Enthusiasts. Just watch everyone in the shot there. They’re all adding something. The fathers teaching their sons how to be real yankees fans, the guy on the left that doesn’t know what to do with his hands, so he somehow just ends up forcing a high five on his girlfriend, and of course, the big guy behind the action saying to know one in particular, “F*** you, f*** you”. This is the gold standard for GIF depth and I would probably put Tommy Hunter at the other end of the spectrum. And finally, it feels like a ripoff of former GIF Tournament contestant, Dan Majerle, former NBA all-star. Still, Tommy Hunter looks like a heavyweight when compared to the 16 seed Carlos Gomez. This GIF probably shouldn’t even be in the tournament. It’s so tiny, so late in the GIF, completely not the focus of the camera man, and not even that funny. If you want to see a quality GIF of an outfielder falling down, check out Shane Victorino.

My Pick: I think it’s obvious that this one goes to Tommy Hunter.

The Result: Chalk. Tommy Hunter wins, but with just 54% of the vote. The commenters seem to think they’re in on some secret joke here with the Carlos Gomez GIF. Dude fell down in the outfield. And it was hard to see. And it wasn’t funny anyway. Whatever. I’m glad this didn’t advance.

(8) Joe Morgan vs (9) Kentucky Fan

The Matchup: Let’s start with Joe Morgan. I went into this expecting to love it because Joe Morgan the baseball broadcaster is a ridiculous moron and I would enjoy laughing at him. It would be like the baseball equivalent of a Jon Gruden GIF. I was disappointed to learn that the Joe Morgan in this GIF is actually an NFL player for the Saints. Womp womp. So getting over that disappointment was tough. But this GIF is actually pretty awesome. The two hits combine perfectly to throw him off balance and subsequently back on balance and it makes him look like a ninja master. I don’t think Bruce Lee could have pulled off this move. It’s both hilarious and impressive. On to Kentucky Fan. This is a really short GIF. It’s short, sweet, and to the point. It’s a fat guy falling on his face while trying a high five. Boom, trapdoor. But because it’s so short, it completely eliminates any chance of depth the GIF has. The very last frame of the GIF gives us a little sneak peak at the aftermath, with a look of horror on the face of the woman in the bottom left. It has potential for more, especially since it’s a bunch of middle-aged people high fiving. You know there’s going to be some awkward hand grasp high fives that old people do because shaking hands is just too ingrained for them not to grab hold when their hand meets another. But alas, this GIF is very intentionally about nothing but the dude falling. That’s fine. It’s funny. It’s certainly better than Carlos Gomez. But it had some stiff competition in this matchup.

My Pick: This was close when I first saw them both. They’re both funny and both grab your attention. But Kentucky fan has little replay value and Joe Morgan follows up the funny with just being flat out impressive. Joe Morgan it is.

The Result: Another moderately close one, with Joe Morgan winning with 54% of the vote. This margin is probably appropriate for the matchup.

(5) Clint Dempsey vs (12) Reggie Bush

The Matchup: Clint Dempsey has quickly become a star among GIFs. “Deuceface” is making appearances in sports crowds as a giant posterboard head. I knew it would be big as soon as I saw it live. It’s hilarious, with some strange context that we’ll never know, in the middle of a soccer pitch against Jamaica. And I’m not letting the fact that he just joined my favorite team, Tottenham, influence me here. Reggie Bush, on the other hand is simply impressive. Three guys on one juke is pretty good, but I think even Reggie Bush would admit he’s done better. I’m not a huge fan of GIFs that are just a usual ESPN Top 10 level of impressive and not much else and this one doesn’t have anything extra special to sauce it up. Seems a little too run of the mill to have a chance in this matchup.

My Pick:  One word (I think?): Deuceface.

The Result: Dempsey wins with a cool 66% of the vote. No contest and rightfully so.

(4) Courtney Kirkland/Kris Humphries vs (13) Ref Hit in Face

The Matchup: Immediately upon seeing the Courtney Kirkland block, it became one of my tournament favorites. It just raises so many questions. I realize it’s some kind of stoppage of play and you need to convey that to the shooter, but is it really worse to let him shoot than to sprint to the line, jump up, and reject him while coming very close to his face? You just know this ref lays in his bed at night and dreams of playing in the NBA. Sadly, his stature leaves him stuck with ref duty. I really want to know if he talked trash to the shooter after the block. Anyway, this one is underseeded. Ref Hit in Face is just a little too run of the mill for my tastes. It fits in with the early 90s Bob Saget America’s Funniest Home Videos, but wouldn’t even win that. Maybe a little more zoom on the ref’s face, a funnier expression, and this one might have separated itself from the pack.

My Pick: I think it’s obvious. The block is one of my tournament favorites. It should win in a landslide.

The Result: Courtney Kirkland wins in a walk with 74% of the vote. Not even close.

(6) Ace Sanders vs (11) Willie the Wildcat

The Matchup: Alright, NOW we have an impressive GIF. Reggie Bush, eat your heart out. This is a punt return. Everyone knows he has the ball. Everyone knows where he’s going. And this isn’t one of those one cut and go types of returns. And it isn’t like he got to the corner and turned it upfield. No, he went straight through every single guy on that kick coverage team and he made it look easy. This could easily belong in a Barry Sanders or Marshawn Lynch highlight reel. This GIF is so impressive, it made me look this guy up to see where the Lions would have to draft him. And the opponent? Willie the Wildcat…I don’t even get it. I mean, what is he even doing? Is that a dance? Why is he just wearing a cat head? How did he not realize there was a kid there? HE JUST LOOKED. I guess that all makes it kind of funny, but still, it’s just kind of weird.

My Pick: The kick returner the Lions have been waiting for. By a mile. AND he has a cool name.

The Result: Wow. Ace Sanders by the skin of his teeth. He won 501-495. That’s just a 6 vote difference. In related news, 495 people shouldn’t be allowed near a computer.

(3) Damn It, Astros vs (14) Phillip Rivers

The Matchup: Oh man, I love this matchup. Damn It, Astros and Phillip Rivers are GIF fixtures in so many different incarnations. They’re among the most failtastic sports figures. So let’s take a look at these ones in particular. Damn It, Astros is awesome, although not their best work. But this one is still pretty great. How is this even possible? I mean, this is a routine thing. You probably touch first on like 75% of your plate appearances. How do you get it this wrong? And it wasn’t even a close play. It wasn’t like he had to stretch to beat the throw. The ball got there well ahead of him. Greatness in concept and execution. And Phillip Rivers. What an underseed at 14. This is just ridiculous. This should be a top 5 seed. I guess it depends on your interpretation of Phillip Rivers’ actions. SBNation seemed to think he was telling the offensive lineman to throw it. The commenters thought he was telling the lineman to bat it down. I think he was actually trying to bat it down himself. You can see as soon as he recognizes that it was tipped up in the air, he cocks his arm back so he can swat it down. He then watches it down into the lineman’s arms and still goes for the swat, despite being 2 feet away and about a second too late. And then, for good measure, as the lineman is going to the ground, he gives it a follow-up swat, just to finish that ball off. Amazing level of stupidity and awkwardness makes this hilariously funny to me. This matchup is REALLY close for me.

My Pick: I think I’m going to have to go with Damn It, Astros because it’s both hilarious and seemingly physically impossible.

The Result: Wow. A blowout win. 78% of people went with Damn It, Astros. My confidence in the voting public has been shaken.

(7) Salute! vs (10) Lakersbro

The Matchup: Ha! These matchups just keep getting better and better. Salute! just really appeals to the part of me that still laughs when someone farts and snickers when people say Uranus. I mean, it’s not just the arm motion, but the look on his face, his open mouth, him licking his lips, that fact that he’s just barely peering out from under that hat, his little mustache. It looks like the worst attempt ever to look like you’re doing something else when everyone else can tell what you’re really doing. Moving on to Lakersbro. As instantly as I started snickering at Salute!, that’s how weary I was of Lakersbro. It was presented as the spiritual successor to Yankee Enthusiasts. And as I mentioned above, I hold that GIF in the highest regard. This one lacks the depth of Yankee Enthusiasts, but also the local flavor. Yankee Enthusiasts is a perfect microcosm of New York. Lakersbro is pulled more from Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure than from any sort of LA culture. So like I said, I was hesitant. But as I’ve watched it more, I’ve gained an appreciation for it. The arm motions, the heap flip when the glasses come off, the backwards hat. This dude came to play. He might not have known it when he entered the arena, but this man was made for GIF stardom. Now I’ve already questioned the depth. And while it’s not Yankees Enthusiasts good, it’s not Tommy Hunter bad. Check out the woman in the bottom right. Her jaw is dropped and she has no idea what to do with her face. And purple shirt. Why is he massaging his junk while celebrating? Solid, if unspectacular supporting cast.

My Pick: I have to be honest. I voted for Salute!. But as I’ve revisited the matchup, I’ve grown to believe Lakersbro is the better GIF.

The Result: Lakersbro wins with 68% of the vote. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by this result. After all, both have near flawless execution, but Lakersbro is more of a connoisseur’s GIF rather than the one that plays to your childish side.

(2) Chiefs Special Teams vs (15) Carlos Boozer

The Matchup: I don’t love the Chiefs GIF. It’s kind of funny. I tend to think it’s actually a good idea. I’ve seen the fake before, where they just do a single misdirection. Seeing that first fake has to throw the receiving team into a fit that they’re in the wrong position, sending them scrambling to the other side of the field, just to be faked again. Of course, it’s the Chiefs. They’re too bad to have the audacity to think they could pull this off. If it were the Patriots, it would have worked and we’d still be talking about it. All of that said, it’s mildly funny with the sped up, yakety sax pace. Still, not worthy of a 2 seed. Oh, Carlos Boozer. This instantly became perhaps my favorite GIF of the West Region. To say it’s underseeded is an understatement. I love the cinematography, first of all. You start with the slow zoom from profile and then switch to a front view to follow along with the action. And the topic, I mean, what is it? I start out assuming he’s incredulous. He stays still, staring at something (or someone), mouth agape. But then, he slowly starts up walking again, like he’s resuming his normal action. But the mouth is still open. And then his eyes start looking around, like he’s searching for help. Did it get stuck that way? And then a camera flash goes off. Like someone wants to document “The Night Carlos Boozer Got Stuck That Way Forever.”  And then the GIF ends, without his mouth ever closing. It forced me to look up whether or not his mouth got stuck that way (Google News reveals nothing). If he keeps it up for much longer, he’ll have bugs fly in there. This is the antithesis of Chiefs Special Teams. Its beauty is that it’s long, it’s real time, and you have no idea what it’s about. For my money, you could swap these seeds and I would ask no questions of it.

My Pick: Isn’t it obvious? Boozer by a landslide. Perhaps by a greater margin than any before it.

The Result: WHAT. The Chiefs won. Come on. The Chiefs never win. Why would you give them the satisfaction here. It’s like people forget that the Chiefs used to be good. If this were truly a move that could not possibly work, even in concept, by a team that cannot possibly execute it, then maaaaaybe. But Boozer has so much more to offer. It has a long life ahead of it. 53% of voters on this one suck.

Round 2 – Sweet 16

(1) Tommy Hunter vs (8) Joe Morgan

Analysis/My Pick: I think Joe Morgan just edges this one. Hilarious and cool and Tommy Hunter is just trying too hard.

The Result: Tommy Hunter wins with 54% of the vote. I think this is justifiable, but Tommy Hunter won’t move much further because it’s planned.

(5) Clint Dempsey vs (4) Courtney Kirkland/Kris Humphries

Analysis/My Pick: As random and funny as Dempsey is in this one, the free throw rejection is just too rare a specimen to lose in the second round. It’s like a football ref making a tackle or blocking a field goal because there was a false start. Just let it go and don’t count it.

The Result: Courtney Kirkland rejects Dempsey worse than he did to Kris Humphries. 67% of the voters made the right call. In the first point I’ve agreed with from the commentariat, someone pointed out that Deuceface is just as good as a still image. This is an excellent point and as has been proven with the head posters.

(6) Ace Sanders vs (3) Damn It, Astros

Analysis/My Pick: This is a solid round of 16 matchup. Ace Sanders is undeniably impressive and awe inspiring, but so is Damn It, Astros, in a way. Ace Sanders bounces off of defenders, while Damn It, Astros bounces off of bases. But Damn It, Astros adds the comedy element on top, which seals it for me. When in doubt go with funny over impressive. I just realized this GIF reminds me of the movie Flubber. Easy win.

The Result: Damn It, Astros wins comfortably, with 65% of the vote. I’m sad to see Ace Sanders go, but it ran into some tough competition.

(10) Lakersbro vs (2) Chiefs Special Teams

Analysis/My Pick: This feels more like a round 1 matchup. Lakersbro is much better than it’s 10th seed and Chiefs Special Teams didn’t have any business beating Carlos Boozer to get to this point. Lakersbro should destroy this one.

The Result: Lakersbro wins with 73% of the vote. I can’t help but wonder how Boozer would have fared.

Round 3 – Elite Eight

(1) Tommy Hunter vs (4) Courtney Kirkland/Kris Humphries

Analysis/My Pick: Don’t make me laugh. Tommy Hunter isn’t even in the same league as Courtney Kirkland. Tommy, you’ve had your fun. Time for your tournament exit.

The Result: The voting public rectifies their earlier mistake and sends Tommy Hunter packing. Kirkland won with 67% of the vote.

(3) Damn It, Astros vs (10) Lakersbro

Analysis/My Pick: Now we’re getting down to business. This is truly a worthy matchup in the elite 8. We’ve already covered what makes each of these great, but what factors put one over the top? They’re both hilarious, both unexpected, but what I keep coming back to is that Damn It, Astros is a once in a lifetime thing. I’ve seen a lot of baseball in my days, but I’ve never seen anything close to this move. He couldn’t do it again if he tried. He probably blacked out for 5 seconds before and after the incident, so there’s not even a way to figure out what he was thinking during this time. Lakersbro is fun, but it’s not that original. Any one of you could do this if you wanted to. The only difference is getting the camera to capture it. This isn’t some special moment in time that must be savored. It’s just some dude (clearly, he’s a dude) doing probably what he’s been doing his whole life. After much deliberation, my vote goes to Damn It, Astros.

The Result: Lakersbro wins narrowly over Damn It, Astros with 52% of the vote.

Round 4 – Final Four

(4) Courtney Kirkland/Kris Humphries vs (10) Lakersbro

Analysis/My Pick: A 10 seed vs a 4 seed in the final four isn’t exactly how you draw it up, but here we are. Courtney Kirkland hasn’t really faced a tough challenge to this point, while Lakersbro has had to go through many of the tougher competitors in the tournament. My initial reaction is to go with Courtney Kirkland because when are you ever going to see that again? But my heart tells me to go with Lakersbro. The deciding factor here I think is replayability. The best part of Courtney Kirkland is that it’s so unique and I’ve never seen it before. But here’s the thing: to put it in a GIF and have it loop for infinity takes away from that uniqueness factor. The entire point is that you see it over and over for as long as you want. And on that point, Lakersbro is infinitely watchable over and over. That HWAAAAAAAAA face as he whips off his glasses is what GIFs are all about. So in the end, I would send Lakersbro on to the championship.

The Result: Lakersbro with a resounding win: 65% of the vote to become the West Region champion.

In my next post, I’ll take a look at the East Region to determine who will face Lakersbro in the final.

Off Season, Off Topic: GIF Tournament III – Part 1

Hi everyone. So I know I’ve been an absent blogger. I haven’t written anything since the Lions still had a chance to not have a disaster season. Anyway, it’s the offseason now, so I’m going to post about something a little off topic – GIF tournament III over at sbnation. Typically, I get a lot of enjoyment out of these things. Basically, they pit all of the greatest GIFs of the year (or whatever time period) against each other in a bracket of 32. That’s a lot of GIFs, and a lot of repeating greatness, so I won’t embed them all here because I know how annoying they can be to load. So I’ll link you to the East Region and West Region and let you browse around for yourself. I’ll save this space for my own personal opinions and analyses. First of all, what does the bracket look like?

base bracketFor now, I’ll just leave this post short. I’ll let you familiarize yourself with these GIFs, and please do because there are some real greats. In future posts, I hope to provide analysis of how the matchups went down, who should have won, and perhaps an alternate reality with proper seeding (seriously, Carlos Boozer is a 15 seed?). Please, stay tuned, because there’s a lot to cover and it’ll be a whole lot of fun.

Show Me the Money

This Lions this season have been defined by seemingly being nothing like any of us thought they would be. I thought they’d be a more potent version of last year’s team: Incredible passing game (only better because of experience), non-existent running game (Best is out again?!), terrible defense (against both the pass and the run), with an under-performing pass rush, and piss poor special teams (well, this one was right). Instead, the passing game looks like Matt Stafford can’t find his target and when he does, the receivers don’t expect it and don’t catch the ball. The running game is the only part of the offense that looks comfortable and confident (until they fumble). The defense has been incredible in both phases, despite a much-maligned secondary, which has actually proven to have some pretty good depth. Just this year Houston, Bentley, Florence, Green, Lacey, and Smith have all had moments where they looked like they could be capable starters in this defense.

Still, this team has been surprising, no doubt. It almost seems like the Lions tried so hard to shed its stereotypes that it ruined the one great thing it had going. What this situation reminds me of is one of the most famous sports movies of all time: Jerry Maguire. The very basic storyline of this movie begins when Jerry Maguire, a sports agent, writes a manifesto about all that is wrong with his business. What he writes is an idealistic vision of the future, with more personal attention, less money, and a return to the roots of the business that he loved.

What it feels like here is that Jim Schwartz and the Lions coaching staff are trying to change their philosophy. They’re trying to implement a running game, play strong defense, and shun the evils of the deep passing game. They know that the old ways are unsustainable. Jerry Maguire couldn’t continue on doing what he was doing or it would eventually destroy him. So Jim Schwartz is doing an overhaul. And just like Jerry Maguire, it isn’t a smooth transition. He lost his job, lost all but one of his clients, and nearly lost his way. And the Lions aren’t doing a whole lot better than that.

And before this gets fixed, he’s going to have to go back on that change of heart. He’s going to have to scream throughout his office SHOW ME THE MONEY, in direct conflict with everything he’s trying to change. Because we, the fans, are Rod Tidwell. We don’t care how he does it. There is no right or wrong way. What we care about is results, above all else.

It’s a very personal, very important thing. Hell, it’s a family motto. Are you ready [Jim]? Just want to make sure you’re ready. Here it is. Show me the money.

SHOW

ME

THE

MONEY

Jim Schwartz, you are hanging on by a very thin thread, and I DIG that about you.